![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.icsom.org\/senzasordino\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Peter-de-Boor_Steve-Wilson-240x300.jpg\")
Photo Credit: Steve Wilson<\/span><\/p><\/div>The AFM-Symphony Opera Strike Fund has been in operation for more than 55 years. During the first 30 of those years, the levels of dues and benefits were increased many times, most likely in an acknowledgement that previous benefit levels had become insufficient for the Fund\u2019s intended purpose. The last change to those benefit levels was implemented in 1999. At this point, an increase in benefit levels is overdue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The current system provides four tiers of dues levels that are loosely tied to an orchestra\u2019s base weekly scale at the time of joining the Fund. I say \u201cloosely\u201d because an orchestra has the option of participating at a higher level than it would otherwise qualify for. These dues levels range from $37.50 to $75 annually, in increments of $12.50. The benefits that are payable in the event of a strike, a lockout, or (as of 2023) a declaration of force majeure or similar action are based on a simple formula: No payment the first week, then weekly amounts that are double the annual dues for the next three weeks, quadruple the annual dues for the following six weeks, and six times the annual dues for the subsequent six weeks. While there are no provisions that explicitly grant benefits beyond these 15 weeks, the Fund trustees are empowered to extend the benefits, and have done so on several occasions (e.g., for the Minnesota Orchestra in 2012\u201313 and the Detroit Symphony Orchestra in 2010\u201311).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n ICSOM\u2019s resolution to amend the bylaws proposes creating five additional tiers of dues\/benefits, with annual dues levels from $100 to $200 in $25 increments, and with the same benefit structure that currently exists relative to dues. It also proposes removing the already tenuous link between wage scales and dues.<\/p>\n As I have been in discussion about this proposal with various people across the Federation, I have heard only two concerns with it: What about locals that pay these dues on behalf of orchestra members and that may not be able to afford a dues increase? What will this change do to the fiscal stability of the Fund?<\/p>\n To assuage the first concern, the authors of this proposal made sure that the increases are entirely voluntary and must be approved by a two-thirds majority of the orchestra and, crucially, by the local executive board.<\/p>\n In terms of the fiscal aspect of this change, it is easy to conceive of scenarios that would prove problematic for the Fund (e.g., what if five large orchestras all increase their dues to the highest level, and then all go on strike for 16 weeks?). And while these scenarios are not inconceivable, they are also most unlikely and would be unprecedented.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n What is needed is a model that can give us potential outcomes from likely scenarios, and here the technique of Monte Carlo simulations might be helpful. This technique involves assigning probabilities to various inputs, running a simulation in which those inputs are decided by chance (using a random number generator to determine them), recording the outcome, and then repeating a large number of times. The spread of outcomes gives some sense of what is likely to occur.<\/p>\n I created a program to do just that. I assigned each currently participating orchestra an annual strike probability based on its and the Fund\u2019s most recent 33-year history (as far back as I could obtain data). I also incorporated some idea of an economic cycle: Certain years would be considered \u201chot,\u201d where strikes were more likely and were likely to last longer; other years would be \u201ccalm,\u201d where strikes were less likely and tended to be shorter; and other years were \u201cnormal,\u201d where these probabilities were unaffected (the duration data were also drawn from the past 33 years). Starting with the Fund balance from 3\/31\/2008 and running this model forward 18 years produced the spread of hypothetical incomes in the figure below:<\/p>\n